Đồng Dollar v
Cách nay đúng 33 năm, năm nước Hoa Kỳ, Nhật Bản, Tây Đức, Anh và Pháp ký thoả ước Plaza,
giảm giá trị của đồng Dolar.
Ngày 22
tháng 09, 1985
·
1985 – Hoa Kỳ, Nhật Bản, Tây Đức, Anh và Pháp ký kết Thỏa ước
Plaza tại New York, giảm giá Đô la Mỹ so với Yên Nhật và Mác Tây Đức.
Thỏa ước Plaza
Bách khoa toàn thư mở Wikipedia
Thỏa ước Plaza hay Hiệp định Plaza (tiếng Anh: Plaza
Accord) là thỏa ước tài chính được ký ngày 22 tháng 9 năm 1985 lại
khách sạn Plaza, thành phố New York, Mỹ, bởi nhóm
G5 khi đó gồm Mỹ, Nhật Bản, Đức, Anh và Pháp. Nhóm G5
đi đến thỏa thuận giảm giá đồng đô-la Mỹ so với đồng Yên Nhật và đồng Mác Đức (đơn vị tiền tệ
của Cộng hòa liên bang Đức trước khi đồng Euro có
hiệu lực) bằng cách can thiệp vào thị trường ngoại hối.
The 1985 "Plaza Accord" is named after New York
City's Plaza Hotel,
which was the location of a meeting of finance ministers who reached an
agreement about managing the fluctuating value of the US dollar. From left
are Gerhard Stoltenberg of West Germany, Pierre Bérégovoy of France, James A. Baker III of the United States, Nigel Lawson of
Britain, and Noboru Takeshita of
Japan.
Trong vòng hai năm kể từ khi Thỏa thuận này
có hiệu lực, tỷ giá hối đoái giữa đô la Mỹ và Yên Nhật đã
giảm tới 51%. Phần lớn sự giảm giá này là nhờ khoản 10 tỷ đô-la bán ra của
các ngân hàng trung ương liên quan. Đầu cơ tiền tệ tiếp tục khiến đồng đô-la
xuống giá khi chấm dứt các hành động can thiệp. Việc đồng đô-la xuống
giá này được hoạch định và thực thi với sự thông báo trước và rộng rãi, nó cũng
không gây ra rối loạn ở các thị trường trên toàn cầu.
Background
Between 1980 and 1985 the dollar had appreciated by about 50%
against the Japanese yen, Deutsche Mark, French Franc and British pound, the
currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. This
caused considerable difficulties for American industry but at first their
lobbying was largely ignored by government. The financial sector was able to
profit from the rising dollar, and a depreciation would have run counter
to Ronald Reagan's administration's plans for
bringing down inflation.
Ronald
Wilson Reagan (/ˈreɪɡən/; February 6, 1911 – June 5, 2004) was an American
politician and actor who served as the 40th
President of the United States from 1981 to 1989
A broad alliance of manufacturers, service providers, and
farmers responded by running an increasingly high-profile campaign asking for
protection against foreign competition.
Major players included grain exporters, car producers,
engineering companies like Caterpillar
Inc., as well as high-tech companies including IBM and Motorola. By
1985, their campaign had acquired sufficient traction for Congress to begin considering passing protectionist laws.
The prospect of trade restrictions spurred the White
House to begin the negotiations that led to the Plaza Accord.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is an American Fortune 100 corporation which designs,
develops, engineers, manufactures, markets and sells machinery, engines, financial products and insurance to customers via a worldwide dealer network. It is the world's largest construction
equipment manufacturer.
The International Business
Machines Corporation (IBM) is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Armonk, New York, United States, with
operations in over 170 countries. The company began in 1911 as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording
Company (CTR) and was renamed
"International Business Machines" in 1924.
Motorola, Inc. (/ˌmoʊtəˈroʊlə/[4]) was an American multinational telecommunications company
founded on September 25, 1928, based in Schaumburg, Illinois. After having lost $4.3 billion from 2007 to 2009,
the company was divided into two independent public companies, Motorola Mobility and Motorola Solutions on January 4, 2011.
Top: the
northern facade with a columned portico facing Lafayette
Square
Bottom: the southern facade with a semi-circular portico facing The Ellipse
Bottom: the southern facade with a semi-circular portico facing The Ellipse
The justification for the dollar's devaluation was twofold: to
reduce the U.S. current
account deficit, which had reached 3.5% of the GDP, and to help the U.S. economy to emerge from a
serious recession that began in the early 1980s. The
U.S. Federal Reserve System under Paul
Volcker had halted the stagflation crisis
of the 1970s by raising interest rates, but this resulted in the dollar
becoming overvalued to the extent that it made industry in the U.S.
(particularly the automobile industry) less competitive in the global market.
The Federal Reserve System
(also known as the Federal Reserve or simply the Fed) is the central banking system of
the United States of
America. It was created on December 23,
1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of financial panics
(particularly the panic of 1907) led to
the desire for central control of the monetary system in order to alleviate
financial crises.
Paul Adolph Volcker Jr. (/ˈvoʊlkər/;
born September 5, 1927) is an American economist. He was Chairman
of the Federal Reserve
under Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan from August 1979 to August 1987
Tác động tới kinh tế
Mỹ
Để kiềm chế lạm phát hồi đầu thập niên 1980, Cục dự trữ
liên bang dưới quyền Paul Volker đã
thực hiện chính sách tiền tệ thắt
chặt. Lãi suất được
nâng lên rất cao, trên 10%. Kết quả là các dòng vốn trên thế giới đổ dồn về Mỹ.
Dollar Mỹ, vì thế lên giá, khiến cho xuất khẩu của Mỹ giảm trong khi nhập khẩu vào nước này tăng lên. Cán cân thương mại và tài khoản vãng lai trở
nên xấu đi.
Thỏa ước Plaza đã thành công trong việc cắt giảm thâm hụt thương
mại của Mỹ với Tây Âu nhưng thất bại trong mục tiêu cơ bản là hạn chế thâm hụt
thương mại với Nhật Bản. Lý do là sự thâm hụt này bắt nguồn từ cơ
cấu kinh tế chứ không từ các yếu tố tiền tệ. Hàng chế
tạo của Mỹ trở nên cạnh tranh trong lĩnh vực xuất khẩu nhưng không thành công tại thị
trường Nhật Bản do
các biện pháp hạn chế nhập khẩu của Nhật Bản.
Tác động tới kinh tế
Nhật Bản
Do Thỏa ước Plaza, Yên Nhật lên giá nhanh chóng. Nền kinh
tế Nhật Bản khi
đó phụ thuộc vào xuất khẩu, nên việc tăng giá đồng Yên đe dọa tăng trưởng kinh tế của Nhật Bản.
Vị trí của Nhật
Bản (xanh lá) trên thế giới, bao gồm quần đảo Kuril hiện đang tranh chấp với Nga (xanh nhạt)
Nhật Bản đã phải sử dụng chính sách tiền tệ nới lỏng. Lãi suất
được hạ xuống đã dẫn đến bong bóng bất động sản và bong bóng cổ phiếu ở nước
này cuối những năm 1980. Để tăng sức cạnh tranh, các công ty Nhật Bản đã xây dựng
nhiều cơ sở sản xuất ở nước ngoài, tạo thành làn sóng FDI của Nhật Bản.
Yên lên giá còn làm GDP của Nhật Bản tính bằng Dollar trở nên
lớn hơn trước rất nhiều. Nói cách khác, người Nhật tự nhiên trở nên giàu có
hơn, và đã mua nhiều tài sản ở khắp thế giới, từ các bức họa nổi tiếng đến các
xưởng phim ở Hollywood. Họ cũng đi du lịch nhiều
hơn và tiêu dùng nhiều
hơn.
Sau này, bong bóng kinh tế tan vỡ là một trong những nguyên nhân
dẫn tới sự đình đốn kinh tế kéo
dài trên một thập niên ở Nhật Bản.
Effects
Devaluing the dollar made U.S. exports cheaper
to purchase for its trading partners, which in turn allegedly meant
that other countries would buy more American-made goods and services.
The exchange
rate value of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from
1985 to 1987. Most of this devaluation was
due to the $10 billion spent by the participating central
banks.[citation needed] Currency speculation caused the dollar to
continue its fall after the end of coordinated interventions. Unlike some
similar financial crises, such as the Mexican and
the Argentine financial crises of
1994 and 2001 respectively, this devaluation was planned, done in an orderly,
pre-announced manner and did not lead to financial panic in the world markets.
The Plaza Accord was successful in reducing the U.S. trade
deficit with Western
European nations but largely failed to fulfill its primary
objective of alleviating the trade deficit with Japan. This deficit was due to
structural conditions that were insensitive to monetary policy, specifically
trade conditions. The manufactured
goods of the United States became more competitive in the
exports market but were still largely unable to succeed in the Japanese domestic market due
to Japan's structural restrictions on imports.
The Louvre Accord would be signed in 1987
to halt the continuing decline of the U.S. dollar.
The signing of the Plaza Accord was significant in that it
reflected Japan's emergence as a real player in managing the international monetary system.
However, the recessionary effects of the strengthened yen in Japan's
export-dependent economy created an incentive for the expansionary monetary policies that
led to the Japanese asset price bubble of
the late 1980s.[citation needed] It
is thus postulated that
Plaza Accord contributed to the Japanese asset price bubble, which progressed
into a protracted period of deflation and low growth in Japan known as
the Lost Decade.
Post-Federal
Reserve
https://s20.postimg.cc/5lx62p5i5/Alan_Greenspan_Paul_Volcker_and_Ben_Bernanke_-_2014.jpg
After leaving the Federal Reserve
in 1987, he became chairman of the prominent New York investment banking firm,
Wolfensohn & Co., a corporate advisory and investment firm run by James D. Wolfensohn (who later became president of the World Bank).In 1993 he chaired the Group of 30 Report on the Derivatives market entitled "Derivatives: Practices and Principles" with several appendices and a survey on how practices may have changed since the original 1993 report. The Group of 30 is a "consultative group on international economic and monetary affairs." Volcker is their Chairman emeritus.
In 1996, he took up the chair of the Independent Committee of Eminent Persons (Volcker Commission) to look into the dormant accounts of Jewish victims of the Holocaust lying in Swiss banks. This included a "massive accounting of Swiss bank records." In the midst of a contentious process (the committee was formed by three Jewish representatives and three representatives of Swiss banks), he was able to bring about an agreement among the parties for a settlement of $1.25 billion.
In 2000 he accepted the Chairmanship of the IFRS Trustees, the not-for-profit funding arm of the International Accounting Standards Board (later the IFRS). The IFRS is a private sector enterprise based in London which seeks to develop a single global accounting model, subject to adoption country by country under their rules of law.
In April 2004, the United Nations assigned Volcker to research possible corruption in the Iraqi Oil for Food program. In the report summarizing its research, Volcker criticized Kojo Annan, son of then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and the Swiss company Cotecna Inspection SA, Kojo's employer, for trying to conceal their relationship. He concluded in his March 2005, report that "there is no evidence that the selection of Cotecna, in 1998, was subject to improper influence of the Secretary General in the bidding or selection process." While Volcker did not implicate the Secretary General in the selection process, however, he did cast serious doubt on Kofi Annan, whose "management performance ... fell short of the standards that the United Nations Organization should strive to maintain." Volcker was a director of the United Nations Association of the United States of America between 2000 and 2004, prior to his being appointed to the Independent Inquiry by Kofi Annan.
As of October 2006, he is the current chairman of the board of trustees of the influential Washington-based financial advisory body, the Group of Thirty, and is a member of the Trilateral Commission. He has had a long association with the Rockefeller family, not only with his positions at Chase Bank and the Trilateral Commission, but also through membership of the trust committee of Rockefeller Group, Inc., which he joined in 1987. That entity managed, at one time, the Rockefeller Center on behalf of the numerous members of the Rockefeller family. He is former chairman and an honorary trustee of International House, the cultural exchange residence and program center in New York City. He is a founding member of the Trilateral Commission and is a long-time member of the Bilderberg Group.
In January 2008, he endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
On April 8, 2008, he was the featured speaker at The Economic Club of New York, and spoke about the issues and causes of the U.S. recession, and critiqued the U.S. financial system and Federal Reserve policies.
Paul Volcker appeared in the Charles Ferguson's movie Inside Job. He was interviewed about current Wall Street CEO pay, claiming it is "excessive."
Volcker was an economic advisor to President Barack Obama, heading the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board.[40] During the financial crisis, Volcker has been extremely critical of banks, saying that their response to the financial crisis has been inadequate, and that more regulation of banks is called for.[41][42][43] Specifically, Volcker has called for a break-up of the nation's largest banks, prohibiting deposit-taking institutions from engaging in riskier activities such as proprietary trading, private equity, and hedge fund investments.[44][45] Volcker left the board when its charter expired on February 6, 2011, without being included in discussions on how the board would be reconstituted.[46]
On January 21, 2010, President Barack Obama proposed bank regulations which he dubbed "The Volcker Rule," in reference to Volcker's aggressive pursuit of these regulations.[47] Volcker appeared with the president at the announcement. The proposed rules would prevent commercial banks from owning and investing in hedge funds and private equity, and limit the trading they do for their own accounts.[48] According to SEC Commissioner Luis A. Aguilar, "[t]he success or failure of the Volcker Rule will depend on the manner in which banking entities comply with the letter and spirit of the rule, and on the willingness of regulators to enforce it." [49]
Volcker has been known to defy the stereotype of a Wall Street insider. A profile in The Week for February 5, 2010, claimed that Volcker doesn't even buy the conventional wisdom that "financial innovation" is necessary for a healthy economy. In fact, he likes to say, "the only useful banking innovation was the invention of the ATM."[50]
On April 6, 2010, at the New-York Historical Society's Global Economic Panel, Volcker commented that the United States should consider adding a national sales tax similar to the Value Added Tax (VAT) imposed in European countries, stating "If, at the end of the day, we need to raise taxes, we should raise taxes." [51]
Tham khảo
·
Lưu Ngọc Trịnh (1998), Kinh tế Nhật Bản: Những bước
thăng trầm trong lịch sử, Nhà xuất bản Thống kê, Hà Nội.
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